The Myth of Voter Suppression
Do Republicans win elections by preventing minorities from voting? The Left says yes, but the data says no. Jason Riley, senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, settles the argument with hard evidence, separating fact from fiction.
A recent Census Bureau report found that voter turnout in 2018 climbed 11 percentage points from the last midterm election… surpassing _____for the first time since 1982.
20%30%40%50%How much did the Hispanic turnout increase by?
30%40%50%60%In 2012 blacks voted at higher rates than whites nationwide, including in Georgia, which was one of the first states in the country to implement a photo-ID requirement for voting.
TrueFalseAccording to an analysis of the census data published by Pew Research Center, which major racial and ethnic group saw historic jumps in voter turnout in 2018?
blackshispanicsasiansall of the aboveIn a 2016 Gallup poll, voter-ID laws were supported by 4 in 5 respondents, including 95% of Republicans, 63% of Democrats, 81% of whites and ______ of nonwhites.
67%77%87%97%
- One of the go-to claims from Democrats is that Republicans only win elections by supposedly suppressing the minority vote.
Democrats and their allies in the mainstream media frequently accuse Republicans of suppressing the minority vote, though evidence strongly undermines the claim.
View sourceDemocratic California Senator Kamala Harris declared at a 2019 NAACP event that “voter suppression” in Georgia and Florida cost Democrats multiple gubernatorial races in 2018. “Let’s say this loud and clear,” said Harris. “Without voter suppression, Stacey Abrams would be the governor of Georgia. Andrew Gillum is the governor of Florida.” Even left-leaning PolitiFact called out Harris for ignoring the key factors that actually led to the Republican victories.
View source“We had an architect of voter suppression that spent the last eight years knitting together a system of voter suppression that is unparalleled in America,” Abrams said of her Republican opponent, former Georgia secretary of state Brian Kemp.
View sourceAs a state representative, Abrams helped pass a law she now claims resulted in “racist” voter suppression.
View source- If minorities are harmed by voter ID and other anti-fraud laws, why is the minority vote up in many states that require them?
According to a Census Bureau report, voter turnout in 2018 increased 11% from the previous midterm election in 2014, surpassing 50% for the first time since 1982. That improved turnout was largely driven by the same minority voters Democrats claim are being disenfranchised. African American turnout increased by around 27%, while Hispanic turnout increased by over 50%.
View sourceAfrican Americans voted at higher rates than whites nationwide in 2012, including in Republican-controlled Georgia, one of the first states in the country to require a photo ID for voting.
View sourceAfrican American voter registration is outpacing white registration in voter ID-requiring Georgia.
View source- Democrats say voter ID laws are “racial discrimination.” Most democracies around the world require IDs to vote.
According to the Left, requiring voters to present a photo ID at their polling place depresses minority turnout and therefore constitutes “racial discrimination,” yet almost every other major democracy in the world requires voter IDs.
View source“We are told that requiring voters to present photo identification at polling places not only depresses minority turnout but is tantamount to racial discrimination,” writes the Manhattan Institute’s Jason Riley. “The evidence challenging these assumptions gets stronger with every passing election, but Democrats and most of the political press don’t seem to have noticed.”
View source- Despite an increase in state voter ID requirements, the minority voter turnout rate continues to increase in recent decades.
Despite an increase in state voter ID requirements, the minority voter turnout rate has grown since the 1990s.
View sourceA Pew Research Center analysis of census data found that “all major racial and ethnic groups saw historic jumps in voter turnout” in 2018.
View source“The 2018 election set new benchmarks for turnout in a midterm election, with a whopping 30 million more people voting than in 2014,” political scientist Taeku Lee wrote in an op-ed for The New York Times. “For women of color, the increased turnout was even more stark, at 37 percent.”
View source- Democrats suggest that minorities oppose voter ID laws, but surveys show the opposite. A vast majority of nonwhites support requiring IDs.
A 2016 Gallup poll found that 4 in 5 respondents supported voter ID laws, including 95% of Republicans, 63% of Democrats, 81% of whites and 77% of nonwhites.
View sourceA 2012 survey published by The Washington Post found similar results: almost three-quarters of Americans support voter ID laws, including 78% of whites, 65% of blacks and 64% of Hispanics.
View sourceRelated reading: “Voter ID Laws Are Good For Democracy” – Stephan and Abigail Thernstrom, Los Angeles Times
View sourceRelated reading: “Data Disprove the ‘Voter Suppression’ Myth” – Jason Riley, Wall Street Journal
View source
Do Republicans win elections by preventing minorities—blacks, Latinos, and others—from voting?
For those on the left and their allies in the major media, the answer is yes; even more than that, it’s an article of faith.
The usual example they offer is state laws, often passed by Republican-majority legislatures, requiring voters to present a photo ID at their polling place—something required in almost every other democracy in the world. According to the left, voter ID depresses minority turnout and is therefore a blatant form of racial discrimination.
But there’s a problem with this accusation: there’s no evidence to support it. Minorities are voting in greater numbers and at higher percentages than ever before. The facts and figures are there for anyone to see. Still, progressives and most of the political press don’t seem to have noticed. Or maybe they just don’t want to look.
At a 2019 NAACP dinner in Detroit, California Senator Kamala Harris told the audience that “voter suppression” in Georgia and Florida cost Democrats gubernatorial races in the 2018 midterm elections. “Let’s say this loud and clear,” said Ms. Harris. “Without voter suppression, Stacey Abrams would be the governor of Georgia. Andrew Gillum is the governor of Florida.”
A few days earlier, Ms. Abrams herself, apparently still bitter over her defeat, made a similar claim. “We had an architect of voter suppression that spent the last eight years knitting together a system of voter suppression that is unparalleled in America,” said Ms. Abrams in reference to her Republican opponent, a former Georgia secretary of state.
But if minorities are harmed by mandating voter ID and other anti-fraud measures such as removing inactive voters from registration rolls, why does the evidence all point to the opposite conclusion?
A recent Census Bureau report found that voter turnout in 2018 climbed 11 percentage points from the last midterm election in 2014, surpassing 50% for the first time since 1982. Moreover, the increased turnout was largely driven by the same minority voters Democrats claim are being disenfranchised. Black turnout grew around 27%, and Hispanic turnout increased about 50%.
None of this comes as news to anyone who pays attention to sober facts instead of inflammatory rhetoric. The black voter turnout rate for the most part has grown steadily since the 1990s. This has occurred notwithstanding an increase in state voter-ID requirements over the same period. In 2012, blacks voted at higher rates than whites nationwide, including in Georgia, which was one of the first states in the country to implement a photo-ID requirement for voting.
Ms. Abrams claims that Republicans have been hard at work trying to disenfranchise black voters, but the reality is that black voter registration is outpacing white registration in the Peach State.
These gains are not limited to blacks. Voting has been up substantially in all minority groups.
An analysis of the census data published by Pew Research Center found that “all major racial and ethnic groups saw historic jumps in voter turnout” in 2018.
Political scientist Taeku Lee confirmed this in an op-ed for the New York Times in which he highlights impressive voting rates for minority women: “The 2018 election set new benchmarks for turnout in a midterm election, with a whopping 30 million more people voting than in 2014. For women of color, the increased turnout was even more stark, at 37 percent.”
As to the issue of ensuring the accuracy and integrity of U.S. elections, minority voters appear to be as concerned as everyone else. Ms. Harris and Ms. Abrams may feel that requiring an ID for banking, flying, or buying cold medicine should not apply to voting, but most people don’t seem to have that problem.
In a 2016 Gallup poll, voter-ID laws were supported by 4 in 5 respondents, including 95% of Republicans, 63% of Democrats, 81% of whites and 77% of nonwhites.
So if there is no serious opposition to voter ID laws and no evidence of voter suppression; if, in fact, more people of different races and ethnicities are voting at higher rates than ever before, why won’t this voter suppression myth die?
The answer is at once surprising and obvious: One party simply can’t accept that they will lose a close election. If a Republican wins one of those, there has to be a nefarious reason. Voter suppression is as good as any—even if it has no basis in fact. Ms. Abrams lost, by the way, by over 50,000 votes.
Elections are decided by the state of the economy, foreign policy issues, candidate personalities and a host of other factors. The non-existent problem of voter suppression is not one of them.
I’m Jason Riley, senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, for Prager University.
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